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By Himfr Ivy
Ethanol prices last week, after a short time to stimulate buying up the downstream state of mind, positive replenishment situation. However, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, take the goods to reflect more recent enterprises flat, with parking at the end of the beginning of restart will resume business, some businesses have relaxed state of mind, take the goods and flexible operation of small plant, the overall atmosphere of weak. However, the industry consider the cost pressures, and the alcohol peak season, there is no intention to cut prices. The current negative factors affecting the market, make the following positive analysis:
Market positive:
High raw material consolidation, cost pressures still remain
Outer plate of cassava in Thailand is still high, inside and outside the inverted serious, CIF offer around 225-230 U.S. dollars / ton. Early alcohol rose, on a certain drive cassava, cheap supply gradually disappear. Recently the situation weighed on traders dull mentality, but considering the high cost of late arrival and the current inventory levels to normal cargo operators who offer more than stick to the current inventory of about 230,000 tons of cassava in Lianyungang, Rizhao Port, about 2 Trade goods million tons. Thailand 66% -67% cassava starch content discussed in the 1740 yuan / ton in the vicinity since the mention, substandard talks in 1730 yuan / ton in the vicinity since the mention. Traders cover their goods mentality appeared difficult to find low-cost sources.
Countries on agricultural products while protecting both the pressure and therefore the price of corn does not rise and fall. Especially the first time in 10 years this year and a large number of imported corn, and purchasing more than the sum of last 15 years, a certain mentality of the market pressure. But given the rising price of wheat and later corn is unlikely to decline in value, so corn to ethanol manufacturers still face high cost pressure.
Alcohol season is approaching, or that a certain drive
Look in previous years, more than one month before the Mid-Autumn Festival liquor manufacturers began to start getting goods scheme. More than 50% alcohol support from the liquor, only about 30% from the chemical industry, there are about 15% comes from fuel ethanol. Liquor did not significantly reduce the total demand, while demand for fuel ethanol is relatively stable, and therefore market driven Mid-Autumn Festival is still on the alcohol can not be ignored.
Market negative:
Weak demand for chemicals in the field, then there is nothing better
Ethyl acetate, headed downstream, always upside down in the product and the cost situation, the main production factory Caigouliangyuan as early, Bingqie You Bufen Companies say that alcohol continues upward, they would then face shutdown Huozhe limit Chan. For August the market to pick up, more is not sufficient confidence in the industry, alcohol is also more difficult to form an effective support.
Parking companies by the end of July early August after another restart, the increased supply of follow-up
In July as planned maintenance company, at the end of most manufacturers began to resume in early, later supply will increase significantly, the market will be a certain mentality or pressure. But the overall level of inventory in the normal, most businesses do not ship the pressure, but lower consumption demand is not yet growing inventory.
The above good bad, Zhuo record of the beginning of the end of the possibility of maintaining a relatively large flat, gradually picking up late with the liquor manufacturer, coupled with cost pressure still exists, or will the market support some form. Now, manufacturers need a stable state of mind, the proposed shipment rallies is better to be cautious bullish on the back of the market
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